Knowledge Sharing:
An Informative Piece by Our
CFP Member by MUSLIM INTELLECTUAL NETWORK, MOHAMMED SAMEER, AYESHA, AND MOHSIN TAUSIF
[Prophet Dawood said:]And certainly many partners wrong each other, except those who believe and do good—but how few are they!….Quran (38:24)
As we enter the blessed month of Ramadan, we pray to Allah (SWT) to enable us to fast and worship with sincerity and to derive benefits from this month. Ramadan, in addition to fasting and ʿibādah (worship), is a time to reflect deeply on the message of Qur’an and the principles of Islam. The concepts of Tawḥīd (oneness of God), Taqwa (God-consciousness), and the life of Prophet Muhammad (SAW) serve as a moral compass to guide individuals and societies toward fairness, justice, and a fulfilling life. For those seeking more information about Islam, resources such as WhyIslam.org and GainPeace.com are valuable sources.
In a world grappling with moral and political uncertainty, humanity needs moral guidance to direct its affairs. While political theorists debate realism, idealism, and constructivism, the dominant model of selfishness has intensified global tensions. The problem of increasing inequality, where one section of the population is drowning in wealth while another struggles to meet its bare necessities, points to a soulless, mechanistic economic world order that is creating constant unrest in societies. Ramadan provides an opportunity to reflect on alternative approaches to leadership and international relations through a moral lens—one based on care, compassion, and fairness under the divine gaze. This uncertainty in world affairs has reached a new level under the current Trump administration, which will be the focus of our post this week.
Trump’s Return and the Shift in U.S. Foreign Policy
The re-election of Donald Trump in 2024 has ushered in a renewed phase of U.S. foreign policy. This policy is characterized by unilateralism, skepticism toward international alliances, and an America-first global order. This openly proclaimed self-interested approach, when adopted by a country that already exerts hegemonic influence over the world, is a worrying development. Some of the key Tenets of Trump’s foreign policy include:
- America First: Prioritizing U.S. sovereignty and economic interests over international cooperation.
- Economic Nationalism: Protectionist measures, trade renegotiations, and tariffs to strengthen domestic industries and reduce trade deficit.
- Allied Burden-Sharing: Demanding increased financial contributions from NATO and other allies.
- Strategic Unpredictability: Strategic unpredictability in foreign policy refers to a deliberate approach where a nation keeps its adversaries and allies uncertain about its next moves. This tactic can increase bargaining power, deter aggression, and create flexibility in decision-making. However, it also risks destabilizing alliances, reducing trust, and escalating conflicts due to miscalculations. In the past, Richard Nixon has employed this strategy to keep opponents off balance in diplomatic and military engagements.
Let us explore how United State’s relation with other major economic power is shaping:
U.S.-China Relations: A Deepening Divide
The rivalry between the U.S. and China remains a cornerstone of Trump’s foreign policy. His administration continues to counter China’s economic expansion by imposing tariffs, restricting Chinese access to critical technologies, and challenging Beijing’s influence in global institutions. The U.S. has increased military support for Taiwan, with Trump signaling a possible shift toward recognizing Taiwan as an independent state, a move that could significantly alter diplomatic relations.
Trump has also strengthened the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) with India, Japan, and Australia to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Military presence in the South China Sea has expanded, increasing tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Middle East Policy: A Staunch Israeli Ally
Trump’s second term has reinforced strong ties with Israel. While securing a multi-phase ceasefire in the Gaza war (which the ICJ has classified as a plausible genocide), Trump has proposed that the United States ‘take over’ and ‘own’ the Gaza Strip. In a subsequent interview, he stated that Gazans would not be allowed to return, arguing that neighboring Arab countries would provide them with a much safer and better life.
On one occasion, Trump proposed a nuclear deal with Iran to allow it to ‘peacefully grow and prosper’ and downplayed military action. However, on the other hand, his administration has further sanctioned Iran and signaled that the alternative is to ‘bomb the hell out of it.’ This is a classic example of strategic unpredictability in foreign policy.
Trump has secured a $600 billion investment deal from Saudi Arabia over four years. His broader Middle East strategy continues to focus on reducing direct U.S. military involvement. After Assad, U.S. foreign policy in Syria continues to be one of selective engagement and striking perceived enemies. The power vacuum in Syria remains unpredictable, with regional actors like Iran, Russia, and Turkey exerting their own influence in the region.
Russia and Ukraine: Balancing Pressure and Diplomacy
Trump’s handling of Russia remains complex and marked shift from Biden administration. In early 2025, Trump proposed a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals to boost its economy and defense. However, President Zelensky, under Democratic pressure, rejected the offer, leading to a heated clash.
Trump’s stance on Russia has sparked concerns in the western world. He labeled Zelensky a “dictator” while avoiding criticism of Putin, suggesting Ukraine “may be Russian someday” and implying it provoked the war. He also proposed a ceasefire with European peacekeepers, aligning with Russian interests.
These moves signal a pro-Russian shift in U.S. policy, impacting Ukraine’s sovereignty and regional stability.
Europe: Transactional Relations
Since early 2025, President Trump has maintained a transactional approach to Europe, demanding NATO allies increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. This has forced European nations to reassess their budgets, impacting social programs. He has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and urged Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense.
Trade tensions have also escalated, with Trump criticizing trade imbalances and threatening tariffs on European goods. European leaders are responding cautiously, seeking greater autonomy in defense and economic policies. These shifts are redefining U.S.-Europe relations, emphasizing burden-sharing and economic competition.
Mexico and Latin America: Immigration and Trade Pressures
In early 2025, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, prompting Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to push for negotiations. A one-month pause was agreed upon after which Tariff went into effect. Meanwhile, Mexico continued its trade integration efforts, including an EU agreement while excluding energy obligations.
The administration also intensified deportations and ended TPS and DACA, impacting migrants from Central America, Haiti, and Venezuela. Mexico responded with Operación Frontera Norte, deploying 10,000 troops to curb migration and drug trafficking, reducing violence in Ciudad Juárez. Meanwhile, Latin American nations resisted U.S. repatriation flights.
Trump’s 2025 policies reinforced a transactional approach, focusing on trade protectionism and stricter immigration enforcement, drawing mixed responses from affected countries.
Economic Policies and Global Trade
Trump’s economic policies remain protectionist, prioritizing American industries. Trade tensions with the EU and China persist, as his administration continues to push for favorable bilateral agreements. This stance has fueled discussions on the future of global trade and economic cooperation, as traditional alliances shift in response to U.S. policies.
Climate Policy and Global Institutions On Decline
Trump’s second term has reinforced his administration’s retreat from global climate agreements. The U.S. re-withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, prioritizing domestic energy production over international environmental commitments. This has further delayed already overdue measures to combat climate change.
His administration has also reduced engagement with global institutions such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization, arguing that these organizations undermine U.S. sovereignty. Funding cuts have weakened American influence in global governance.
Conclusion: A More Unpredictable World
Trump’s foreign policy has created uncertainties and challenges for global actors. Nations are adjusting their diplomatic and economic strategies in response to U.S. unpredictability. While some allies have adapted to new trade and defense expectations, others are seeking alternative partnerships to counterbalance American unilateralism.
Trump’s second term has solidified a world order where U.S. foreign policy prioritizes national interests over traditional western-multilateral frameworks. While this approach has reinforced American sovereignty in some areas, it has also introduced uncertainty into global diplomacy. The long-term effects of these policies is yet to be seen, as the world navigates an era of shifting alliances and economic nationalism.
In this blessed month of Ramadan, we pray for a fair, just, and stable world where people can live with respect and dignity. Aameen.
https://open.substack.com/pub/mineglobal/p/welcoming-ramadan-in-an-uncertain?r=39s23o&utm_medium=ios